Probability, econometrics and truth: the methodology of by Hugo A. Keuzenkamp PDF

By Hugo A. Keuzenkamp

ISBN-10: 0521553598

ISBN-13: 9780521553599

Whilst John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early paintings in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he used to be expressing a greatly held view of a brand new self-discipline. although, even after part a century of sensible paintings and theorizing by way of the most entire social scientists, Keynes' reviews are nonetheless repeated this present day. This ebook assesses the rules and improvement of econometrics and units out a foundation for the reconstruction of the rules of econometric inference by way of studying a few of the interpretations of likelihood concept that underlie econometrics.

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With various -values. Relative frequency and induction 43 For the purpose of inference, the frequentist asserts implicitly, or explicitly, that the statistical model is `true' (Leamer, 1978, calls this the `axiom of correct speci®cation'). 8 Fisher did not discuss the problem of appraising rival theories, but he was fully aware of the speci®cation problem. Indeed, one of his most important contributions to statistics deals with the problem of experimental design, which has a direct relation to the speci®cation problem (which features prominently in chapters 6 and 7).

1 In 1919, Richard von Mises formulated the foundations for a frequency theory of probabilistic inference (see von Mises, [1928] 1981, p. 224). His views are discussed in, section 2. Shortly after, Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1922) presented an alternative frequentist foundation of probabilistic inference. Section 3 deals with Fisher's theory. Today, the most popular frequentist theory of probability is based on yet another interpretation, due to Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson. This is the topic of, section 4.

248). While von Mises was a positivist in the tradition of Mach, Fisher was an exponent of British empiricism, often associated with the names of Locke, Berkeley and Hume. Fisher's methodological stance is more instrumentalistic than von Mises'. The latter excels in analytic clarity. Fisher, on the other hand, is characterized by intuitive genius, less by analytical rigour. 6 Fisher is the man of the Galton laboratory and Rothamstead Experimental Station, where theory met practical application, which he considered to be more important for the development of the theory of probability than anything else.

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Probability, econometrics and truth: the methodology of econometrics by Hugo A. Keuzenkamp


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